PropertyInvesting.net: Property Investment Special Reports

289: London

09-18-2009

PropertyInvesting.net team

 

There are is a confluence of economic, social and politic directives and trends that point to London as the key growth are in the UK in the next ten year, with outlying areas growing at approximately half the pace. Many of these trends are a continuation of what has occurred in the last ten years, but some are fairly new and some are emerging. We will itemize them below. We hope by listing them, we can be very transparent is why we focus the bulk of our investments in London and see no reason to discontinue this strategy:

 

Pros - positives

• Population due to rise by 800,000 in the next ten years
• Relatively young growing population
• Financial capital of Europe, one of biggest three Global Financial Centres
• A Tory victory in mid 2010 is likely and would benefit London
• Olympics 2012 – massive investment and infra-structure developments
• Continuing regeneration of East End and South Bank
• Most energy efficient place in UK per unit GDP produced
• Excellent rail, tube and public transport protects from Peak Oil
• Compact city protects from Peak Oil
• London is Western Europes main oil centre for trading, investment, companies
• Middle East, African, Far East, American financial inflows
• Weak pounds stimulating investment in prime London real estate
• Arts, culture, tourism, entertainment
• Multi-cultural cosmopolitan global city attracting high net work individuals and families
• Excellent education and health services
• Taxes likely to stabilize the drop if Tory win election
• UK produces 80% of its oil and gas needs – well protected from Peak Oil for the next five year
• Surrounding countryside and areas of outstanding national beauty are big asset
• Warmest place in UK
• Excellent airports in all directions from city centre
• Eurostar rail link to European mainland – direct trains to Paris and Brussels
• Good property law, title and credible regulated banks
• Low corruption levels
• Low violent crime rates in most areas
• Huge numbers of high paid jobs and new jobs being created in West End, City and Docklands
• Low supply of property and high demand supports prices increasing and high capital gains
• Rental market strong in areas with good rail-tube links
• Lack of exposure to manufacturing jobs and sector
• Lack of exposure to public sector jobs
• Massive new developments in Stratford, Docklands, Battersea, Brent-Cricklewood, Hackney, Kidbrooke, Ebbsfleet etc
• East London Rail Line – completes mid 2010
• Crossrail development
• High Speed Rail to Birmingham and Manchester look likely in the next ten years
• Increasing number of baby-boomers and wealthy elderly international people buying second homes (holiday homes) in London

 

Cons - negatives

• Gun crime and violent crime on slight increase – threat of worsening crime
• Risk of city civil disorder and riots if fuel shortages due to Peak Oil
• UK’s oil and gas production will drop by ~5% per annum for the next ten years – oil import bill will increase significantly unless conservation measures taken
• UK budget deficit – although this may decrease in the next few years particularly if the Tories win election
• Crossrail cancelled – if Tories win 30% chance of this
• Wealthy people move to suburbs if crime significantly increases

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Positive Change:  It’s very difficult to see how so many factors could conspire to de-throne London as the highest overall growth area in the UK. What has been impressive and rather surprising has been the level of investment in London – infrastructure projects and regeneration project plus the Olympics in the last four years – if anything these seem to be accelerating. Such project in the north of England are far smaller and fewer. The focus in the north appears to be creating public sector jobs. In London, the investment seem to be generating real improvements and positive chance in the infra-structure. So for the knowledgeable property investor, it relatively simple to cluster ones investment around these positive changes and see the benefits feed through into high property prices. Its not rocket science. It’s fairly predictable.

 

East London Rail Opens:  Please note the East London Line opens in ~April 2010. As soon as this happens, please will literally catch and train, get off, and start looking for property. This happened in Lewisham in October 1999 when the Docklands Light Railway Station opened. It only changed after the station opened. So if you go to Brockley, Honor Oak Park, Forest Hill or Sydenham today and pick a bargain one bedroom Victorian flat in  quiet street close the station, you’ll almost certainly see prices shoot up in Spring 2010 when the stations open. We cant be more explicit than that!  To help, we provide the map below of the new stations…enjoy..

 

 

East London Railway Regeneration 2010 Propery Hotspots

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

London Map Dockland Light Railway

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High Speed One

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crossrail Map - overview

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stratford Olympics 2012 Park

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rail Terminals in London - Map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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