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Market Watch: Which way for UK house prices?


01-24-2017

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The ONS says house prices rose by 6.7 per cent in the year to November – but Rics believes price growth is weakening

Trump is about to create an administration that will have ramifications for all of us. For the US he will no doubt be incredibly pro-business, pro-tax cuts and pro-military might. Whether this manifests in a new period of American isolationism remains to be seen but he has at least said a UK trade deal will be a priority.

Meanwhile, a speech by Theresa May last week was meant to set out our clear aims and plans for Brexit. It was pretty clear that it was not pretty clear but, to be fair, why should she reveal her hand in front of everyone? That is not great negotiation tactics.

What May and Chancellor Philip Hammond have done is threaten to turn the UK into a tax haven to fight back against any potential vindictiveness from the EU.

May also confirmed that Parliament would get a chance to vote on the deal and that there would be a phased implementation period. Germany reacted the quickest, sending a cloud of toxic red smog over to London.

Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics reported that UK house prices rose by 6.7 per cent in the year to November, although the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors believes price growth is weakening and there will be continued slowdown over the next few months.

UK inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, increased from 1.2 per cent in November to 1.6 per cent in December and is set to be a key discussion point this year.

MS-MarketWatch graph

In the markets, three-month Libor is still at 0.36 per cent while swap rates are still doing nothing in particular.

  • 2-year money is up 0.02% at 0.64%
  • 3-year money is up 0.02% at 0.73%
  • 5-year money is up 0.01% at 0.92%
  • 10-year money is unchanged at 1.31%

In the product world, you have to hand it to Santander. Fresh from its retention announcement, it now has some shiny new rates including a 1.19 per cent two-year fix and its lowest-ever five-year fix priced at 1.89 per cent. Both are available to 60 per cent loan-to-value with a £999 fee.

Meanwhile, Virgin Money has released a very interesting flexible product: a two-year tracker priced at 1.69 per cent to 65 per cent LTV with a £995 fee. The key to the product is that borrowers can make unlimited overpayments and then use those to take payment holidays and redraw funds.

In the buy-to-let world, stalwart Paragon has announced it will be moving into the residential market with a range that targets borrowers with complex incomes. It is offering two- and five-year fixed-rate loans starting at 3.29 per cent at 75 per cent LTV and 3.49 per cent at 85 per cent LTV.

Barclays has made some underwriting changes where there is a buy-to-let in the background and now needs to see either bank statements showing the monthly rental income or an assured shorthold tenancy agreement.

Clydesdale Bank has confirmed it will not be revamping its approach to buy-to-let calculations and will continue to take an overall view of clients’ affordability, which is a welcome approach. It has also made its Professional range of products available to brokers.

Elsewhere, those lovely people at Skipton have cut rates by up to 0.44 per cent on some Help to Buy and buy-to-let products. The Help to Buy range includes a two-year fix at 2.05 per cent with no fees to 75 per cent LTV, while the buy-to-let range starts at just 1.99 per cent for a two-year fix to 60 per cent LTV with £995 fees.

Axis Bank has launched some lower rates and offers the same products for limited company applications on straightforward properties. Rates start at 3.38 per cent to 75 per cent LTV with a 1.5 per cent fee for a two-year fixed. Five-year fixes are available from 3.95 per cent.

It is also worth mentioning the bridging world, which is becoming more relevant to brokers, especially when Masthaven has just announced a headline rate of only 0.49 per cent a month on loans under 40 per cent LTV for premier partners. At 50 per cent LTV the rate is 0.54 per cent.

www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk

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