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Revealed: the 31 hotspots where house prices will surge now


05-22-2016

 

East Meon in East Hampshire, just a few miles from popular Petersfield
East Meon in East Hampshire, just a few miles from popular Petersfield Credit: Robin Bush/Getty
 

'You have to ask, 'What would you do with a bigger garden’,” the estate agent said as we stood on a postage-stamp-size piece of fake turf in Barnes four years ago. We both knew what he meant: I couldn’t afford a larger outside space in this part of leafy south-west London. So off I trundled to buy in Twickenham. This was the first time I had considered the commuter “trade-off”.

Urbanites across the UK have been weighing up this equation for generations: lower house prices and a larger plot versus travel time and separation from a city lifestyle.  For some it’s simply about bringing children up in more rural surroundings, changing their pace of life or finding the right schools for the kids.  But, for the most part, this big move is in the pursuit of value for money.

While this commuter conundrum is not new, in no other housing market cycle has the price gap between London and the South East been so great, and therefore the financial motivation to move out so compelling.  New research from Savills has revealed where the next wave of house price rises will come due to increased demand, and the majority are in the ever-expanding outer commuter belt. 

 

With price rises in the capital (45.1 per cent since the recession) spilling into the Home Counties, buyers are being pushed to consider far-flung towns and villages or Greater London enclaves that have not traditionally been deemed desirable.

 “London has so substantially overperformed since the recession that the price gaps between the capital and the South East are bigger than ever. People who are looking for more space without unduly stretching themselves on their mortgage are searching further afield,” says Lucian Cook, head of residential research for Savills.

Commuting underpins the next ripple of house price growthLucian Cook, head of residential research for Savills

High-speed broadband in more rural areas and flexible working arrangements are also encouraging people to fan out, and Cook pinpoints a “herding mentality”. As pioneer commuters settle in more provincial spots, their friends will often follow. House envy is a powerful driver. 

So, where to buy? Here are the 31 places where house prices are expected to rise by more than 20 per cent over the next five years. 

Hart, Hampshire

Skip over pricey parts of Waverley, in Surrey, and head into Hart in Hampshire for better value for money, good state schools and beautiful countryside. The main town of Fleet has a bustling high street, large properties on generous plots and the fast train into Waterloo takes 40 minutes. The picturesque villages of Crondall and Church Crookham have their own junior schools.  

Average house price: £410,076, house price growth 2005-15: 46pc

A five-bedroom detached house in Fleet, on the market for £975,000 with Purple Bricks
A five-bedroom detached house in Fleet, on the market for £975,000 with Purple Bricks

Bromley, Greater London

Property prices in Bromley grew 10 per cent in 2015 as first-time buyers from inner London looked to get on the ladder somewhere cheap and young families searched for an affordable second home. “People are realising that a slight increase in commuting distance [Bromley is in Tube Zone 6] doesn’t necessarily correlate to a significant increase in commuting time, yet you can get more for your money than you can in the London suburbs, with school spaces more readily available,” says Simon Scott of Savills.  The agent Alan de Maid is selling a three-bedroom semi-detached house in Bromley for £575,000. 

Average house price: £443,767, house price growth 2005-15: 63pc

On the market with Savills, £1.5m in Bromley gets you this 4,700sq ft house with seven bedrooms
On the market with Savills, £1.5m in Bromley gets you this 4,700sq ft house with seven bedrooms

East Hampshire

The Hindhead tunnel, which runs beneath the Devil’s Punchbowl, a National Trust beauty spot, has opened up East Hampshire to the commuter. With its own station and easy access to protected countryside, the market town of Petersfield has always been on their radar, says Steven Grantham, of Bourne estate agents. “But we’ve seen a considerable rise in demand and prices (above the national average) across the whole area.” 

Buyers who are looking for even better value are now straying into Clandon, Horndean  and East Meon. “We are seeing a lot of people in their mid-40s who have experienced massive house price growth in their London homes, trading them in for an equally sized or even bigger places down here, but with no mortgage,” he adds.

According to George Clarendon, of Knight Frank, the Georgian town of Alresford is attracting downsizers. “Often it appeals to people who already know East Hampshire but want to move from a rural location to somewhere with a vibrant community and more facilities,” he says. 

Average house price: £368,332, house price growth 2005-15: 32pc

A four-bedroom, semi detached home in Petersfield for £925,000
A four-bedroom, semi detached home in Petersfield for £925,000 for sale through Jacob and Hunt

Winchester, Hampshire

The cathedral city has plenty of things to do for young families, such as walking the Jane Austen trail or visiting the Science Centre and Planetarium. The month-long Hampshire food festival starts in Winchester on July 1.  “The city has become hugely enticing to all types of buyers: young families, middle-aged couples and those wishing to downsize and enter retirement,” says Edward Cunningham, of Knight Frank.  The train to Waterloo takes just over an hour with easy access to the M3, M27 and A34. Southampton airport is a 15 to 20-minute drive.

Average house price: £434,616, house price growth 2005-15: 41pc

A six bedroom house in the village of Hurstbourne on the outskirts of Winchester, for sale for £875,000 with Carter Jonas
A six bedroom house in the village of Hurstbourne on the outskirts of Winchester, for sale for £875,000 with Carter Jonas

Tunbridge Wells, Kent

“Tunbridge Wells is increasingly popular with families moving from London and expats returning from overseas,” says Robert Jacobs, of Savills. “They like the easy commute, the schools and the atmosphere of the town. There’s good architecture, green spaces and entertainment and plenty of restaurants, cafés and bars.”  Child-friendly beaches, such as Camber Sands in Rye, are only 23 miles away and it’s an easy 55-minute train journey into Charing Cross. Sarah Beeny’s online agent Tepilo is sellinga three-bedroom cottage in Tunbridge Wells for £325,000.  

Average house price: £404,464, house price growth 2005-15: 39pc

A three-bedroom cottage in Tunbridge Wells for £325,000 with Tepilo
A three-bedroom cottage in Tunbridge Wells for £325,000 with Tepilo

Basingstoke and Deane, Hampshire

Basingstoke is an affordable alternative to Reading – the first stop on the Crossrail line into London, running west to east. With more banks and pharmaceutical companies setting up secondary offices in Reading, Basingstoke is becoming a commuter hub.  According to Edward Cunningham, of Knight Frank, the countryside around Basingstoke is also attracting young families.  “Properties are sought after due to several excellent schools: Cheam at Headley, Lord Wandsworth College at Long Sutton and Daneshill  at Stratfield Turgis.” Basingstoke now has a Waitrose and a John Lewis. Carter Jonas is selling a four-bedroom thatched cottage in the nearby village of Oakley for £685,000.

Average house price: £292,678, house price growth 2005-15: 31pc

A four-bedroom cottage in Oakley - outside Basingstoke - on the market for £685,000 with Carter Jonas
A four-bedroom cottage in Oakley - outside Basingstoke - on the market for £685,000 with Carter Jonas

Horsham, West Sussex

Vic Sawyer is selling his five-bedroom house, Rookwood Park in Horsham (right), for £1.575 million through King & Chasemore. The entrepreneur, who made his fortune in roofing, is downsizing, but not retiring, and raised his family in the area. “Horsham is a brilliant place to bring up kids and we’re seeing more young families are moving into the area,” he says. East Street is considered trendy with the usual chains such as Pizza Express, and independent restaurants such as the Giggling Squid (Thai).

Average house price: £375,412, house price growth 2005-15: 35pc

Rookwood Park, Vic Sawyer's family home which he is selling for £1.575m through King & Chasemore
Rookwood Park, Vic Sawyer's family home which he is selling for £1.575m through King & Chasemore Credit: Kate & Duncan

Here are the rest of the 31 areas predicted to be the next hotspots...

Wycombe, Buckinghamshire

Average house price: £398,629, house price growth 2005-15: 36pc

Three Rivers, Hertfordshire

Average house price: £504,672, house price growth 2005-15: 51pc

Surrey Heath, Surrey

Average house price: £406,069, house price growth 2005-15: 40pc

Spelthorne, Surrey 

Average house price: £347,250, house price growth 2005-15: 46pc

Chiltern, Buckinghamshire

Average house price: £566,570, house price growth 2005-15: 50pc

Dacorum, Hertfordshire 

Average house price: £402,499, house price growth 2005-15: 49pc

Sutton, Greater London

Average house price: £360,968, house price growth 2005-15: 53pc

South Oxfordshire 

Average house price: £437,397, house price growth 2005-15: 44pc

West Berkshire

Average house price: £356,687, house price growth 2005-15: 35pc

Hillingdon, Greater London

Average house price: £398,754, house price growth 2005-15: 57pc

Watford, Greater London

Average house price: £336,479, house price growth 2005-15: 47pc

Rushmoor, Hampshire

Average house price: £267,391, house price growth 2005-15: 36pc

Croydon, Greater London

Average house price: £343,578, house price growth 2005-15: 53pc

Reigate and Banstead, Surrey

Average house price: £424,914, house price growth 2005-15: 42pc

Tandridge, Surrey

Average house price: £465,344, house price growth 2005-15: 40pc

Enfield, Greater London

Average house price: £393,274, house price growth 2005-15: 56pc

Cherwell, Oxfordshire

Average house price: £291,918, house price growth 2005-15: 36pc

Sevenoaks, Kent

Average house price: £461,436, house price growth 2005-15: 42pc

Adur, West Sussex

Average house price: £288,638, house price growth 2005-15: 45pc

Crawley, West Sussex

Average house price: £261,185, house price growth 2005-15: 36pc

West Oxfordshire 

Average house price: £337,349, house price growth 2005-15: 34pc

South Cambridgeshire

Average house price: £367,990, house price growth 2005-15: 45pc

Runnymede, Surrey

Average house price: £437,299, house price growth 2005-15: 42pc

Harrow, Greater London

Average house price: £464,990, house price growth 2005 - 2015: 59pc

Leigh McCarron, his girlfriend Jemma and their dog Bertie in their new build house at Upper Heyford in Cherwell, Oxfordshire. The scheme is being built by Dorchester Living and prices start from £295,000
Leigh McCarron, his girlfriend Jemma and their dog Bertie in their new build house at Upper Heyford in Cherwell, Oxfordshire. The scheme is being built by Dorchester Living and prices start from £295,000

 How the research worked

Savills looked at how each local authority performed in three periods 1995 – 2000, 2000 – 2005 and 2005 – 2015 and ranked them according to whether they lead or lagged in these periods. 

Then the research team stripped out the markets that did conform to the leaders and laggers model  and divided the rest into 10 equal groups.

The "next 31 hotspots" are the next decile of the property cycle, of course there will be another decile as the cycle continues.

The map was put together by Frances Clacy in the Savills research team.   

www.telegraph.co.uk/

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