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Brexit risks '25pc house price crash' but Fitch warns remain vote will not resolve EU tensions


05-17-2016

Fitch house prices
 
Fitch estimates that Uk house prices are up to 25pc above 'sustainable' levels Credit: Alamy
 

The rating agency said a messy exit characterised by "rancorous and protracted" trade negotiations would fuel market turbulence and risk "permanent damage" to the UK's financial sector.

Brexit could 'shift centre of gravity in EU'

Under this scenario, the value of sterling would drop by 30pc against a basket of other currencies by the end of 2016, pushing retail failures to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and hitting UK landlords through a clampdown in immigration.

However, Fitch warned that a vote to stay in the bloc would also lead to unrest, as it predicted that net EU migration would remain elevated for years to come.

"Net EU migration to UK would remain high [if the UK votes to stay in the EU], with the resulting social tensions and core discontent with the EU ultimately unresolved," Fitch said in a report.

It also warned that leaving the EU could shift "the centre of gravity of the EU" towards "more protectionist and less economically liberal" policies.

Net EU migration to UK would remain high [if the UK votes to stay in the EU], with the resulting social tensions and core discontent with the EU ultimately unresolvedFitch

It described a vote to leave as a "dangerous precedent" that would weaken the cohesion of the entire bloc.

If Britain thrived, this could encourage mainstream political parties in countries such as Sweden and Denmark to advocate an exit, Fitch said.

These Scandinavian countries, which have traditionally aligned themselves with the UK on issues such as globalisation, were unlikely to welcome a "shift" towards protectionism.

"The Netherlands might [also] not welcome such shifts," it said.

George Osborne: Brexit will cause 'significant' hit to house prices   

'Unfavourable' or no EU deal could trigger chaos

Fitch warned that fractious negotiations between the UK and EU after a Brexit vote would weigh on growth, push down the pound and push up inflation.

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, warned last week that a Brexit could lead to a "materially lower path for growth and a notably higher path for inflation".

Carney: Brexit could cause pound to plunge and hit growth

Mr Carney said policymakers could raise or cut interest rates depending on the state of the economy.

Fitch said the Bank would most likely be forced to increase rates to more than 3pc by 2019, following a period of looser monetary policy to offset big a fall in demand.

Lower growth and higher interest rates could trigger a sharp fall in house prices.

London, which would be "disproportionately affected by the loss of financial services business and high-wage jobs", would be most vulnerable to house price falls, it said.

"Fitch estimates that UK house prices are currently up to 25pc above 'sustainable' levels in relation to disposable income.

"This scenario could result in near-term price declines that result in house prices falling towards their sustainable level." 

Landlords would also be hit by a reduction in net EU migration, which could fall "close to zero" if Britain opted for tighter controls.

UK house prices are currently up to 25pc above 'sustainable' levels in relation to disposable incomeFitch

It said official figures showed immigrants are "three times more likely to rent than UK nationals".

"Much tighter controls on immigration could affect the buy-to-let sector in particular ... with longer void periods between tenancies and possibly reduced monthly rental income."

The rating agency said that, while exporters were likely to benefit from a fall in the value of the pound, airlines could suffer a "significant" negative impact as "over 40pc of their costs are in dollars and a large share of their debt is also dollar denominated".

fitch
Fitch said a Brexit would hit airlines, which pay a large chunk of costs in dollars. By contrast, UK utilities would not be significantly affected as the regulatory framework is "determined wholly within the UK" Credit: Fitch

Retail sector failures could "multiply" it added, reaching levels "similar to those in 2008-2009".

While large retailers were expected to adjust to the weaker pound by sourcing goods from cheaper locations, it said: "Failures could increase among independent retailers due to their relative lack of bargaining power and extremely competitive trading conditions."

'Favourable' EU deal would leave migration elevated

Fitch said a "favourable" deal with the EU would limit the amount of market turbulence and could even result in "some restrictions on free movement of labour".

However, this would be offset by "loss of control over future changes in regulation" that would "increase the risk of the UK having to adopt EU regulation that is harmful for business", it said.

The rating agency added that net EU migration would fall over the medium term but "remain above" the Government's target of 100,000 a year.

Global banks such as HSBC and Barclays would increase their presence in the EU to reduce costs and maintain business relationships in the bloc, Fitch said.

However, it suggested that fears of a mass exodus of financial services to the EU if Britain secured favourable exit terms were exaggerated.

EU countries also hit hard by a Brexit

Fitch said Ireland, Malta, Belgium, the Netherlands, Cyprus and Luxembourg were the countries most exposed to the UK economy, and would be hardest hit by a Brexit.

All of these countries export goods and services to the UK worth at least 8pc of gross domestic product (GDP).

Economists at ING also calculated that a Brexit would deal an economic blow to the eurozone.

www.telegraph.co.uk/

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