Luxury property predictions 2015
01-01-2014
From the mansion tax to the hottest developments at home and abroad, Zoe Dare Hall rounds up the major stories in luxury property for 2015
Biggest UK property headline: 2014’s stamp duty changes and mega-basement bans have already left wealthy homeowners in London reeling. Now they’ll be waiting for 2015’s moment of truth – will there be a mansion tax?
While most central London agents think such a move unlikely, the pre-election uncertainty is causing headaches as buyers (particularly from overseas) hold off until the future is known. As for how many properties would be affected by an annual tax on £2m+ homes, no one’s quite sure of that either. Estimates vary from 58,000 (Hometrack) to 110,000 (Knight Frank).
Biggest overseas property headline: "Overseas buyers put Spain as number one for holiday homes". Prices are cheap, the sun still shines – what else are wealthy, vitamin D-deprived Northern European nations going to do with their spare cash? Might Turkey, on the other hand, start to see a slowdown in demand as events on its Syrian border start to strike fear in buyers’ minds?
"China real estate crash" predicts Nicholas Spencer, senior sales negotiator from Henry & James. The country’s “highly dodgy, pyramidal scheme” of shadow banking – lending money against non-existent or paper-only collateral, often for projects that won’t exist either – will lead to catastrophe, thinks Spencer.
Predictions for prime London house prices: Central London could rise by 10 per cent, think Douglas & Gordon and Aylesford International. Others go for a more modest two per cent (Strutt & Parker and Cluttons). Savills, meanwhile, is looking at -0.5 per cent without a mansion tax – and -5 per cent “with full mansion tax”.
Biggest buyers in London: The Russians will continue to flee their falling roubles, African oligarchs – particularly Nigerians – will pitch up in Belgravia with £20m budgets and rich Chinese will branch out from their usual preference of new-build waterfront into period, prime London. But most central London agents make another bold assertion of who is going to be buying up prime London. The British!
“The Brits are back,” says Ed Tryon from Lichfields buying agency. “There will be a fall in the proportion of international buyers due to skittishness around the election, but this will be matched by a growth in British spending as our domestic economy strengthens.”
Best new London developments: London’s current crane count makes the Costa del Sol circa 2004 look like Legoland. From huge landmark developments that are changing the skyline to the smartest boutique projects in town, some of London’s most sought-after new apartments will hit the market in 2015.
They include The Glebe, nine residences (apartments and villas) in a Norman Foster-designed gated development in Old Chelsea. Likely to start at around £25m, their prices could put even One Hyde Park in the shade. “Staggering” is how Nicholas Spencer from Henry & James describes the project’s location and ambition. “The developers have sat on the site for 10 years, so they will launch at the most opportune moment – presumably when all oligarchal and oriental eyes are firmly fixed their way,” he says.
That’s if they aren’t distracted by Park Crescent, Amazon Property’s restoration of the east side of one of just two remaining John Nash crescents in London. The 20 contemporary apartments and three mews houses will have use of a private tunnel into Regent’s Park.
Or there’s 1-5 Grosvenor Place, located above a new Peninsula Hotel with views over Buckingham Palace’s gardens. Rumour has it that the Candy brothers tried to buy the site but Grosvenor decided to develop it themselves. “This could become London’s best new development over the next two years,” says Camilla Dell from Black Brick.
Prime London’s hottest areas: W2 – that bit just north of Hyde Park that is still undervalued compared with neighbouring Notting Hill and 2014’s hit, Marylebone. 2015 sees the start of a five-year £1bn plan to turn the Hyde Park side of Queensway into a chic urban village and “the Covent Garden of the West”.
Greenwich is also on the up, according to Jazmin Atkins from Prime Purchase, due to its illustrious history, wide-ranging transport links (including City airport) and new units from around £650 sq ft. “It makes complete sense to the City worker and frequent traveller.”
Overseas destination: Ibiza. It’s like a hedonist’s dream that never ends: supermodels and rock stars, supercars and speedboats, unbelievably cool hotels and restaurants. Sublimotion at the Hard Rock Hotel is said to be the world’s most expensive restaurant, with its 20-course tasting menu costing €1,500. Multi-Michelin starred brothers Ferran and Albert Adria of El Bulli fame are set to open in Ibiza in 2015 and money is being poured into the port to create a new superyacht haven.
“It’s putting the French Riviera in the shade for glamour, cuisine, ambience and the cool factor,” says Glynn Evans, Managing Director of Ibiza Sotheby’s International Realty.
Also hotly tipped for 2015 is Portugal, whose golden visa scheme (which grants residency in return for a €500,000 property investment) is attracting wealthy investors, particularly Chinese, to Lisbon and the Algarve coast.
For emerging stars, there’s Jose Ignacio, Uruguay’s “secret celebrity playground”. It’s like The Hamptons 50 years ago, property sales were up by 157 per cent last year and the latest high-profile development is Marazul Villas with a plot and villa costing from $3.7m.
Or there’s the “Nice of the east” – Vietnam’s Ha Long Bay. “Better value for money than Thailand and it doesn’t have that hedonist party vibe,” says Henry & James’ Nicholas Spencer.
And then there’s Cuba as the US seeks to end its embargo after half a century. Foreign property developers are hovering like vultures.
Interior designer: With the Beckhams’ Holland Park mansion under her belt, Rose Uniacke – who has her interiors shop in Pimlico Road, SW1 – is one of the hottest interior designers for 2015. She’s also behind The Buckingham, six new apartments overlooking Buckingham Palace costing from £3.25m.
“Philippe Starck and Kelly Hoppen are beginning to feel dated now,” says Jazmin Atkins of buying agency Prime Purchase. Other designers tipped by central London agents are Laura Hammett and Oliver Burns.
Luxury trend: “Biophilic design,” says Tony Dowse, chairman of leading eco house builder Environ Communities. That’s incorporating fresh air, daylight and natural materials into property design to allow us to connect with the natural world and feel healthier. So, too, do wellness centres, which Camilla Dell of Black Brick buying agency says will be in every high end residential development. “Bars and discos are out. Aromatherapy and reiki are in.”
Also look out for aubergine – the colour of 2015. “It’s the perfect choice if you are bored of grey and want to use something more colourful but unobtrusive,” says Sharon Elalouf from Ash Design London.