House prices could fall by £30,000 if Scotland votes for independence with referendum set to cause market chaos
09-18-2014
Property website Zoopla warns of shock as bad as the financial crisis
Prices could fall 17.5% due to market uncertainty and businesses moving
Analysts say Scotland faces losing 'service economy', reducing demand
One estate agent is set to lose £5million worth of deals if the vote is Yes
Oil companies and financial firms have spoken out against independence
By Hugo Gye for MailOnline
House prices could fall by more than £30,000 if Scotland breaks away from the UK, it was claimed today.
Property website Zoopla suggested that a Yes vote in Thursday's referendum could cause as bad a shock to the markets as the financial crisis - while one estate agent predicted that 'every area of the market' would be damaged.
Uncertainty over Scotland's economic future and the potential loss of skilled jobs as businesses relocate to England would reduce demand for housing and depress prices, the company said.
The comments came as David Cameron flew in to Scotland in a final attempt to shore up support for the Union with just three days to go before the vote.
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Fall: According to property website Zoopla, house prices in Scotland could tumble by as much as £31,000
Warning: Alex Salmond has faced an assault from big business over his plans for an independent Scotland
Market Update: Pound, Scotland and leading shares (related)
Polls are currently on a knife-edge, with most surveys suggesting a slim lead for No but some saying that Yes could pull off a last-minute triumph.
The average home in Scotland currently costs £177,599, having risen by 8.3 per cent in the past two years, according to Zoopla.
However, a vote for independence would usher in a period of uncertainty over Scotland's future currency and tax rates, which could reduce market confidence and make it harder to get a mortgage.
The website points out that house prices are driven by demand, meaning that if top businesses move jobs out of Scotland there would be fewer workers looking to buy and prices would fall.
Financial firms such as the Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Life have pledged to move to England in the event of a Yes vote, although it is not yet known how this will affect Scottish-based employees.
Zoopla said: 'If the economic impact on Scotland is as severe as some recent market commentary has suggested, a Yes vote could potentially create a market shock on a par with the recent financial crisis when house prices in Scotland fell by 17.5 per cent, which would wipe over £31,000 off the value of the average Scottish home and £85billion off the value of the total housing stock in Scotland.
'Uncertainty is never good for markets. It is possible that after all the efforts to create a sustainable recovery a Yes vote could reverse the recent gains and dampen future house price growth for Scottish homeowners. A No vote would remove uncertainty from the market and likely allow the recovery to continue.'
Support: But the value of financial assets could be seriously affected by a Yes vote
Spokesman Lawrence Hall added: 'While the impact of the referendum on the Scottish and wider UK economy long-term is hard to predict and there are opposing views, a Yes vote would almost certainly have a detrimental effect on Scottish house prices in the short to medium-term.
'The uncertainties on employment, tax, currency, EU membership and interest rates will all play their part and if big business does head south with a Yes vote, Scotland will lose a significant piece of their service economy with nothing to replace it, leading to a greater supply and reduced demand for housing, and a resultant drop in house prices.'
Mark Coulter, an Edinburgh-based estate agent, said that Scottish independence would do 'a lot of damage' due to the uncertainty caused by the negotiations which would have to follow a Yes vote.
He told MailOnline: 'Markets don't like uncertainty - if you don't know which government you've got coming, if you don't know what currency you're using.'
Mr Coulter - who is currently working on £5million of deals which will collapse in the event of a Yes vote - predicted that the upper end of the property market would be the worst affected, but added: 'Every area of the market is going to suffer.'
The disruption could last for longer than the 18 months which the Scottish government has set out as a timetable for independence, he claimed.
Many estate agents have declined to comment on the market's prospects, but Mr Coulter said he had 'a moral obligation to speak out'.
Opposition: Supporters of the Union have repeatedly pointed out the dangers of independence
Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said that house prices had been rising thanks to the UK's economic recovery and the policies of the Westminster Government.
'Homeowners in Scotland will be deeply worried by this news,' he said. 'Millions of Scots have worked hard to own their home, and many more aspire to do so.
'This is yet another example of how Salmond's reckless drive to a separate Scotland would hit our pockets and household budgets.'
In a separate report, Rightmove said today that Scottish independence would jeopardise house prices across the UK due to the uncertainty about how Britain's assets would be divided.
'Even the very debate around Scottish independence and possible implications for the economic outlook for the rest of the UK could cause uncertainty in the minds of potential home-movers contemplating a large long-term financial commitment,' an analyst said.
The house price predictions are the latest bad news for Alex Salmond to emanate from the financial world, after a think-tank warned that the government of an independent Scotland would face a £14billion black hole in its public finances.
Last week, Deutsche Bank compared the prospect of independence to the Great Depression, while the governor of the Bank of England predicted that Scotland would have to build up huge capital reserves, which would to a period of swingeing austerity.