ONS figures show that the UK’s population could soar to over 70 million by 2038, much of the increase driven by migration and increased life span. One of the most pressing concerns for people affected is the shortage of housing.
By European standards, Britain’s population is shooting up. Over the last decade, population growth has increased at twice the rate of the rest of Europe.
In one year alone- from mid 2012 to mid 2013, the population grew by more than 400,000, with more than 25% of that in London.
The ONS says the number of people living in Britain could be 70million by 2038.
Two thirds of the projected increase will be a result of immigration, either through newcomers arriving or the increased birth rate of migrants who have arrived in recent years.
Bu those population forecasts are based on current figures. Dr Chris Wilson is Associate Professor in Demography at the University of Oxford. He says the forecasts are not necessarily accurate:
“If you extrapolate forward 20/30 years you end up with a lot of people. So the question is- how likely is it the current situation will continue for the 20/30 years of a projection? The answer is we don’t know.”
Simon Ross, CEO of Population Matters, thinks the trend will continue:
“The problem is there’s no sign of it stopping. The projections are that we’ll continue to have a reasonably high birth rate and net migration. So every year there's another half a million on the previous number, and it just goes in one direction.”
One of the most immediate concerns of people living in the UK is housing - or more accurately, the lack of it.
The increase in population has created huge demand across the UK for affordable housing, especially in the South East, and nowhere more so than in London.
House prices have risen 18.5 percent in the last year alone, with the average price of a house in London now over half a million pounds.
Dr Chris Wilson says we may see fundamental changes to London and other British cities:
“England is one of the most densely populated countries in the world already. And a lot depends on the kinds of cities we develop. In the 20th century, the emphasis was on suburbia. Now we are seeing increasing density within the city.”
Simon Ross says demographic change and a lack of affordable housing is forcing Britons into smaller homes:
“With regard to housing there are a number of factors population growth is causing. Houses are becoming smaller- the UK has the smallest in Europe, and many houses are being sub-divided into studio flats, very small properties. There’s also overcrowding, due to a shortage of social housing for the poor and waiting lists of years.”
Concerns are of course not limited to housing. Healthcare provision and education have also felt the strain of the population increase.
Successive governments have promised to build more houses to cope with rising popularities- but there’s little sign that housing is a major priority, with housing starts a fraction of what they were in the 1960s and 1970s.