102: Property Price and Economic Predictions for 2007:
12-12-2006
PropertyInvesting.net team Dec 12th 2006
PropertyInvestment.net predict property prices will rise (in order of increase):
Northern Ireland 12%
- London-City/West 10%
- London-peripheral 8%
- Greater London 7%
- South 6%
- East Anglia 5%
- South West 5%
- Scotland 5%
- Wales 4%
- Yorkshire 3.5%
- North-West 3.5%
- East Midlands 3%
- West Midlands 2%
- North 2%
Note that the UK rates are 5% and Euro rates are still only 3.25% - this differential may reduce over time as the UK manufacturing-economic trade with the European mainland proportionately increases.
- US Dollar to the UK£ $2 / £1
- UK£ to the Euro £1 / 0.69 Euro
- Oil price $65/bbl (range $55 to $75/bbl)
- UK Gas price 35-45p/therm
- UK Interest Rates 5% until Feb, then 5.25% for remaining 2007
- FT by end 2007 6300
- Gas price mid 2007 35p/therm, end 2007 45p/therm
- UK Inflation 2.7% Jan 2007 dropping to 2.4% by end 2007
- UK GDP 2.8% early 2007 dropping to 2.3% by end 2007
- Security outlook - improving - tensions in Middle East tend to subside
- Euro interest rate 3.5% early 2007 rising to 3.75% by end 2007
- US Interest rate 5% ealry 2007 dropping to 4.25% by end 2007 (as GDP growth slows from 3.0% to 1.8%)
- Unemployment - slowly rising, Employment slowly rising
- Wage inflation 4.0% (4.3% including bonuses)
- GDP growth London 4.4%, GDP growth North 1.8%, Scotland 2.1%
Look-Back on 2006 Predictions
Enclosed for a look-back are our predictions from 26th Dec 2005 for the year 2006. As you can see, the trends were generally correct although the actual numbers were probably amplified a bit (e.g. London 7.5%, West End 15%).
London 5% (West End 10%, East End 7%, South 3%, North 2%)
- South-East 4%
- South-West 4%
- Midlands 0%
- East Midlands 1%
- East Anglia 2%
- North-West 2%
- North & Yorks 3%
- Wales 2%
- Scotland 6%
We were also correct to predict a boom in house prices in Aberdeen and Petershead (oil boom).